Thursday, January 1, 2009

The Lies Continue: US rescue averted 'financial collapse'

From Breitbart:
Massive rescue efforts by the US government and central bank in recent months helped avert a "financial collapse" and are working to stabilize the economy, a Treasury report said Wednesday.

The Treasury report to a congressional panel overseeing the 700-billion-dollar rescue plan passed in early October said the extraordinary actions probably averted deeper problems.

"Treasury, working with the Federal Reserve, the FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.) and other regulators, has taken the necessary steps to prevent a financial collapse," the report said.

"The most important evidence that our strategy is working is that Treasury's actions, in combination with other actions, stemmed a series of financial institution failures. The financial system is fundamentally more stable than it was when Congress passed the legislation."

I'm trying not to be pessimistic on this first day of 2009, but it's very hard to avoid the facts and sugar-coat reality. Maybe this "rescue" delayed the inevitable, but it certainly did not solve the problem. The problem is the continued policy of the Federal Reserve to create credit out of thin air thereby inflating the money supply thereby devaluing the dollar. The devaluation of the dollar is a direct hit on consumers since prices increase as a consequence of the massive influx of artificial credit.

Nouriel Roubini, economics professor at NYU, gives his bleak predictions for the future of the US:

We are in the middle of a very severe recession that's going to continue through all of 2009 - the worst U.S. recession in the past 50 years. It's the bursting of a huge leveraged-up credit bubble. There's no going back, and there is no bottom to it. It was excessive in everything from subprime to prime, from credit cards to student loans, from corporate bonds to muni bonds. You name it. And it's all reversing right now in a very, very massive way. At this point it's not just a U.S. recession. All of the advanced economies are at the beginning of a hard landing. And emerging markets, beginning with China, are in a severe slowdown. So we're having a global recession and it's becoming worse.

Things are going to be awful for everyday people. U.S. GDP growth is going to be negative through the end of 2009. And the recovery in 2010 and 2011, if there is one, is going to be so weak - with a growth rate of 1% to 1.5% - that it's going to feel like a recession. I see the unemployment rate peaking at around 9% by 2010. The value of homes has already fallen 25%. In my view, home prices are going to fall by another 15% before bottoming out in 2010.

For the next 12 months I would stay away from risky assets. I would stay away from the stock market. I would stay away from commodities. I would stay away from credit, both high-yield and high-grade. I would stay in cash or cashlike instruments such as short-term or longer-term government bonds. It's better to stay in things with low returns rather than to lose 50% of your wealth. You should preserve capital. It'll be hard and challenging enough. I wish I could be more cheerful, but I was right a year ago, and I think I'll be right this year too.

I'll leave you with this interview with Nassim Nicholas Taleb, economist and author of “The Black Swan” and Dr. Mandelbrot, professor of Mathematics. Both say that the present economic situation is far more serious than the Great Depression and the economy during the American Revolution.

Happy New Year!